With the death of chairman Jorge Mas Canosa, who elevated the Cuban American National Foundation to the rarefied levels of high-stakes national and international politics, what will happen to the most powerful organization in the Cuban exile community?

This much seems clear: Without Mas Canosa's passionate style of leadership, the foundation could lose much of its strength to become one among many exile groups.

``I don't think they have an heir apparent,'' said Raul Masvidal, an original founder of the group. ``Mas Canosa made the foundation what it is today and became the best-known Cuban in the process. No one else has achieved that.''

Often, in Mas Canosa's absence, foundation president Francisco ``Pepe'' Hernandez has taken on the role of ``acting'' chairman. And on Sunday, Dr. Alberto Hernandez, who had served as vice chairman, was named chairman. But most foundation observers feel that no one person can completely replace Mas Canosa, who devoted enormous time and resources to the anti-Castro cause.

Yet they say the foundation can survive -- even retain some of its clout -- as long as Mas Canosa's successor holds the group together.

Jaime Suchlicki, a University of Miami professor of international studies, said that while Mas Canosa's powerful personality is irreplaceable, other foundation members can carry on.

``One possibility is some sort of collective leadership,'' he said. ``Look, whenever Jorge Mas went to Washington or abroad, he took other foundation people with him. So these people know what to do and who to see. And people know the foundation. So it's not like it will fall apart and disband.''

Sergio Bendixen, a prominent pollster who has tracked Mas Canosa and the foundation for 10 years, said the foundation may have a difficult time without Mas Canosa because his popularity among Cuban exiles did not necessarily spill over to the foundation.

``Without Mas, the foundation may well have to redefine its role if it wants to retain the support of the Cuban-American community,'' Bendixen said.

A 1996 Bendixen poll for Spanish-language WSCV-Channel 51 showed that while a majority of exiles thought Mas Canosa was the most popular exile leader, they did not accord the same standing to the foundation.

Declining popular base

Figures showed that support for the foundation had steadily eroded since a similar Bendixen poll in 1994, although most of the exiles queried continued to view the group as the most effective of exile organizations.

``The foundation has always had an image of being somewhat confrontational and uncompromising,'' Bendixen said.

No one from the foundation would be interviewed for this article, but Mas Canosa himself had said the foundation was not a personal fiefdom.

``Many people think I make all the decisions and impose them on the foundation,'' he said in a 1992 interview. ``But that's not so. At foundation meetings, all the directors have a voice, and these guys are very articulate and forceful themselves. I don't order them around.''

Under Mas Canosa, the foundation came to be viewed as a shadow government in South Florida -- home of the world's largest Cuban exile community -- where visiting foreign and national dignitaries frequently called on Mas Canosa and other foundation officials rather than local mayors.

Until 1981, when prominent and wealthy Cuban Americans pooled resources to create the foundation, exile groups were legion but weak. Most limited their activities to Miami and to increasingly infrequent and ineffective commando raids against Cuba.

As a result, the nation at large came to view Cuban Americans as strident but ineffectual.

The foundation changed all that.

``Americans used to see us as crazy bomb-throwers, but I think the foundation modified that view,'' Mas Canosa once said.

He said the foundation helped to transform la causa -- the catch-all Spanish phrase for the fight against Fidel Castro -- into an international cause celebre.

No longer was the anti-Castro cause merely a Little Havana event. It became an international campaign.

``We had to take the fight out of Calle Ocho and Miami Stadium and into the center of power,'' Mas Canosa told The Herald in 1986. ``We had to stop commando raids and concentrate on influencing public opinion and governments.''

In fact, Mas Canosa was so successful that he became Castro's most hated enemy, said Damian Fernandez, chair of international relations at Florida International University. Castro held him up as a principal culprit of the ills afflicting the island -- the man who might have brought imperialism to Cuba's shores.

Castro's nemesis

``Without his nemesis, Fidel will have to look around for another opponent of Mas' stature -- and that won't be easy,'' he said. ``For years, Havana has depicted [Mas] as the devil. Now they're going to miss him.''

Under Mas Canosa's leadership, the foundation survived the sudden shift in political winds when in 1992 a Democratic candidate, Bill Clinton, defeated Republican President George Bush, a foundation ally in the White House.

That the foundation prevailed as the exile organization, even without a Republican ally, was a testament to Mas Canosa's careful steering through turbulent political waters.

Unlike other exile leaders, he played both sides of the political aisle. But Democrats had to pass a litmus test: They could not support efforts to reach out to Castro or lift the trade embargo against Cuba.

Clinton passed the test with flying colors. He was not as militantly anti-Castro in public speeches as his Republican predecessors, but he did not disappoint the foundation.

Of all American presidents who have dealt with Castro, nine so far, only Clinton seriously tightened the trade embargo by signing the controversial Helms-Burton law last year allowing exiles to sue foreigners who buy Castro-confiscated properties in Cuba.

Influencing world leaders to embrace or, at least, not obstruct anti-Castro actions was a key foundation goal. It remains to be seen whether in a post-Mas Canosa era, the foundation will have the same ability to advance its agenda.

Experience shows that when foundation members stick together to target an issue, the foundation usually succeeds. From Radio and TV Marti, the U.S. government stations that broadcast to Cuba, to the Helms-Burton law, the foundation played a key role in advancing both issues.

With more than 50 directors and trustees, the organization works like the board of a private corporation.

Each director pledges $10,000 annually to the foundation. Trustees pledge $5,000. The foundation also obtains money through fund-raisers, gala functions and other special events. Tables at gala dinners often sell for thousands of dollars.

As long as the foundation's structure remains intact, some believe that Mas Canosa's death will not have a significant impact on American policy toward Cuba or on the anti-Castro lobbying efforts in Washington.

``Things won't change, because Jorge Mas Canosa's ideals are shared fervently by others,'' said Phil Peters, a senior fellow at the Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, a think tank in Virginia. ``His genius lay in creating an institution that introduces and defends those ideals in every available forum -- and that's not going to go away. The foundation is a very solid, active and well-known institution.''

Copyright © 1997 The Miami Herald