KINGSTON, Jamaica -- For the 15-member Caribbean Community (CARICOM), to talk or not to talk is the real question -- the region continues to weigh the political and economic considerations before taking a final decision on whether to begin negotiating a free-trade accord with Cuba.

Havana put the proposal on the table two years ago, and the region committed itself to dealing with the matter at a summit held earlier this month in Jamaica, but this was not to be.

A CARICOM spokesman said the region will now await the findings of a study to be presented to the next CARICOM-Cuba joint commission meeting in December in Havana. Officials say the differences between the free-market economies of CARICOM and the state-run economy in Cuba must be dealt with first.

``At this point in time, the Cuban economy is not such that we will benefit from a free-trade accord,'' noted Jamaica's junior foreign trade minister, Anthony Hylton. ``We need to know that it will bear fruit and that regional businesses will benefit.''

Message to Cuba

The underlying message is that Cuba needs to open up its economy more. Two of the region's largest conglomerates, Trinidad's Neal & Massy and Jamaica's Grace Kennedy, have admitted they have faced problems with the bureaucracy surrounding Cuba's state-run trading houses.

``We are small countries with similar products,'' noted Jose Francisco Piedra, head of the Caribbean desk in Cuba's Foreign Ministry. ``We need to assure that trade and investment will be mutually beneficial.''

One trade official admitted the Cubans are becoming ``visibly annoyed'' with the slow pace and the delays, but CARICOM, which includes all the English-speaking states in the region, plus Suriname, Haiti and the British dependency of Montserrat, insists it is committed to expanding ties with its largest neighbor for a number of reasons.

``If Cuba blows up,'' noted one senior foreign official, ``the region is in a lot of trouble, because any time there is a hot spot somewhere, it is viewed that the entire Caribbean is in difficulty.''
Ramifications with U.S.

The region's leaders took the opportunity during their May meeting in Barbados with President Clinton to make it clear they are strongly opposed to efforts to further isolate Cuba. At the same time, they are mindful that their own efforts at ``constructive engagement'' could anger their largest trading partner and tourism market.

``There are political considerations involved in signing this treaty,'' noted Jamaica's Industry Minister Paul Robertson, regarding the decision to further delay the talks.

However, Cuba's foreign trade minister, Ricardo Cabrisas Ruiz, said he didn't believe the political consequences were forcing the region to hold back from signing the proposed treaty.

``I would say our joint process has made a lot of headway,'' he said. ``There are many issues to be considered. These things sometimes take years.''

Trade increasing

Cabrisas said total trade between CARICOM and Cuba six years ago stood at $5 million to $6 million, while last year the total was $56 million and the figure this year is expected to be even larger.

But it is far easier to export from Cuba than to import to Cuba, a fact borne out by the statistics. CARICOM enjoys a trade surplus with Cuba -- but officials note that if Trinidad's petroleum exports are removed, the surplus is in Cuba's favor.

``Until Cuba opens up, in terms of investment, etc., it will really be a market to keep an eye on for the future,'' noted Neal & Massy's Chairman Sidney Knox.

Cabrisas responded: ``We don't rule out that some bureaucracy may exist,'' but added that some of the problems being experienced are due to ``a lack of knowledge of the business opportunities that exist.''

The study being prepared on Cuba is in the hands of the Caribbean Export Development Agency, based in Barbados and funded by the European Union, which recently opened an office in Havana to encourage more trade with Cuba. The findings are expected to encourage CARICOM to begin negotiating.

Important to Cuba

The pact is important to Cuba, whose moves to create free zones and woo foreign investors are based on the island's export potential, rather than on the limited spending power of Cubans.

In addition, Cuba is a member of the 34-member Association of Caribbean States, which association Secretary General Simon Molina expects to be a full-blown free-trade area by 2000. The association was CARICOM's brainchild, and will probably follow CARICOM's lead on how to proceed toward trade talks with Havana.

Despite the fears of a U.S. backlash, five CARICOM leaders have made official visits to Havana over the past year, and several more will make the trip in the coming months.

Grenada's Prime Minister Keith Mitchell took the opportunity of his visit to Cuba last month to invite President Fidel Castro to visit his country. Castro's visit could come a few months before the 15th anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Grenada.

Castro is expected to unveil a memorial honoring the 24 Cuban construction workers who died during the invasion, and a plaque marking Cuba's contribution to building the Point Salines airport.

Copyright © 1997 The Miami Herald