Los Angeles Times
September 24, 2004
President Bush and the U.S.-installed interim prime minister of Iraq, Iyad
Allawi, provided upbeat portraits of the war-ravaged nation Thursday,
proclaiming elections on the horizon and democracy not far off.
Their
visions seemed utterly at odds with reality.
This week's beheadings of
foreigners, the daily attacks on U.S. troops and the suicide car bombs that
have killed hundreds of Iraqis undercut the verbal sunshine produced in the
White House Rose Garden. Add the report of disquieting comments from an Iraqi
more popular and powerful than Allawi — Shiite cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali
Sistani — and the picture grows bleaker.
The New York Times
reported Thursday that Sistani was concerned that elections scheduled for
January might be delayed. (Allawi said there would be no postponement.) More
ominously, Sistani was reported to have threatened to withdraw his support for
the elections unless changes were made to increase the representation of
Shiites.
An election witho ut support from the respected cleric would be
a farce.
It was Sistani who brokered the agreement last month that ended
the siege in the holy city of Najaf, where a younger, more militant cleric
challenged U.S. and Iraqi forces. Allawi neglected to mention Sistani's role
when the prime minister cited a peaceful Najaf as a mark of progress.
Allawi's thanks to U.S. troops — more than 1,000 of whom have died
— was heartfelt and welcomed by those witnessing his earlier speech to a
meeting of Congress. But his contention that 15 of Iraq's 18 provinces are safe
enough to hold elections today ignored the inability of U.S. and Iraqi forces
to enter a number of cities held by Sunnis.
Iraqis are used to seeing
Allawi show up at massacre sites and vow vengeance. But in tailoring his
message to a U.S. audience, he stressed elections more than he usually does in
Baghdad. Bush too keeps pointing to elections as a sign that Iraq is on the
road to democracy.
But there's agreement am ong realists, including U.N.
officials needed to help with the balloting, that without more security,
meaningful elections cannot be held. And Iraqis who experience oil pipelines
being blown up, sewage flowing in the streets and electricity more off than on
would blink at the picture drawn by Allawi.
Bush conceded the war was
"tough work" but said several times that Iraq was a key battleground in the war
on terror — another theme in his reelection campaign. He also said he
could not understand why many Americans felt they were less safe, not more,
since the ouster of Saddam Hussein. He should reread a classified intelligence
report prepared in July warning that the situation was bad and could easily get
worse. Bush said Thursday that he was wrong to call the report a "guess" rather
than an "estimate," but he still clearly doesn't buy it. Yet other analyses
have been equally gloomy.
The administration ignored warnings before
the invasion about the possible consequences and shunned advice on how to avoid
disaster.
Bush, his advisors and Allawi need to stop thinking that their
hopes will transform chaos into peace and face the reality of a country in
increasing turmoil.