Los Angeles Times
October 13, 2004
WASHINGTON — Sen. John F. Kerry said he would do better than the Boston
Red Sox, and President Bush stayed largely out of view as the Democratic and
Republican presidential candidates waited out the final hours before their
third, final — and quite possibly — most critical, debate tonight,
20 days before the election.
With the Nov. 2 outcome balanced on a
knife's point, the handful of undecided voters as well as the core supporters
have become points of focus for the two campaigns seeking to eke out a winning
margin — and the debate on domestic policy is a key vehicle for reaching
them.
The 90-minute confrontation begins at 6 p.m. PDT.
Bush
arrived in Phoenix on Tuesday; Kerry flew in today after a final day of
preparations in Santa Fe, N.M.
At midmorning, Bush visited the debate
site, at Arizona State University nearby in Tempe. He spent 19 minutes at the
Gammage Auditorium, and did not speak with reporters.
Kerry, chatting
with reporters in th e morning, said, "I feel great -fantastic. I feel
fantastic."
Asked whether he would do better than the Red Sox, his
hometown team which lost to the New York Yankees in the first game of the
American League championship series, Kerry replied simply, "Yes."
The
subject matter of the debate — domestic issues, including the economy,
social policy and domestic security — was set in an agreement reached by
the two campaigns.
No issues go so far to illustrate the cultural clash
that has divided the country as those involving domestic policy —
emotional matters in many cases that go to the heart of voters' core beliefs
but, given the attention devoted to the war in Iraq, topics that have not drawn
as much attention in the political debate this year.
Many are issues
that touch raw nerves with key voting blocs: Roman Catholics and evangelical
Christians, the elderly, or the impoverished.
The campaigns bombarded
supporters, journalists, and the Internet with the lines of attack they
anticipated from the other side — and why the other side was wrong or
taking positions out of context. The result was a flood of what political
jargon has taken to calling "prebuttal," filled with the sort of invective that
has become a foundation of much of the increasingly acerbic general election
debate.
The debate topics offer a highway of potential potholes for the
candidates as they tailor their messages to the most crucial constituents in the
key states: such social issues as abortion, stem cell research, and healthcare,
and such economic matters as joblessness, taxes and the federal budget
deficit.
Mike McCurry, the former White House press secretary who is one
of Kerry's senior advisors, said, "There is going to be a full engagement on
healthcare, so we can make the argument that our healthcare plan is going to be
decidedly better for the middle class."
He gave away one bit of Kerry
strategy: The Democrat will likely wear the same "powerful red" tie he sported
in the first two debates, in Coral Gables, Fla., and St. Louis.
"He's
got a lucky tie thing, now," McCurry said, the unstated implication being that
Kerry felt he did well in the first two encounters.
Dan Bartlett, the
White House communications chief, said Bush would say that Kerry had
accomplished little during his 20 years in the Senate, and was the most liberal
member of the Senate.
He said Bush had spent time exercising this
morning on an elliptical trainer, and during the afternoon the president was
"clearing his head."
Among the key questions leading up to the debate:
Will the candidates move beyond the argumentative-bordering-on-nasty tenor of
the first two meetings and discuss specifics of their plans, as surveys and
anecdotal evidence suggest the voters want. Or will they succeed in using the
debate to reinforce the messages of each campaign: Bush's theme, that Kerry
shifts with the political winds when setting policy course; and Kerry's theme,
that Bush h as set an economic course that favors the wealthy and a social
policy course built on ideology rather than reason.
With women making up
61% of the undecided voters, according to a Time magazine survey, both campaigns
are likely to try to present their approaches to the economy and other domestic
issues in a light aimed at attracting their support.
The latest polling
shows the race as close in the key states where most attention is focused as in
the country as a whole.
The Electoral Scoreboard published daily by
Hotline, a political newsletter, showed Bush with an edge in 28 states, and
Kerry leading in 17, giving Bush 245 electoral votes of the 270 needed for
election and Kerry 204.
Hotline cited these results from recent polling:
Bush leading 49% to 46% in Iowa, 51% to 43% in Ohio, 46% to 45% in Pennsylvania,
and 49% to 44% in Wisconsin. It said Kerry was leading 46% to 41% in New
Jersey.
A poll by the Chicago Tribune in much of the same territory
found Bush ahead in I owa 47% to 45%, and Kerry leading in Minnesota 45% to 43%,
in Ohio, 49% to 45%, and in Wisconsin, 47% to 43%.
Bush has been trying
to stay away from one of the most troublesome statistics for a president seeking
reelection: the net loss of jobs during his administration. For the first time
since Herbert Hoover's one term more than seven decades ago at the start of the
Great Depression, the United States has lost jobs during Bush's four years in
office.
The president and Vice President Dick Cheney ignore that
statistic on the stump and instead point to the 1.7 million jobs created since
the summer of 2003 — an indication of an economy treading water at best,
because 1.6 million new jobs are required just to keep up with population
growth.