Los Angeles Times
October 12, 2004
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration plans to delay major assaults on
rebel-held cities in Iraq until after U.S. elections in November, say
administration officials, mindful that large-scale military offensives could
affect the U.S. presidential race.
Although American commanders in
Iraq have been buoyed by recent successes in insurgent-held towns such as
Samarra and Tall Afar, administration and Pentagon officials say they will not
try to retake cities such as Fallouja and Ramadi — where the insurgents'
grip is strongest and U.S. military casualties could be the highest —
until after Americans vote in what is likely to be an extremely close
election.
"When this election's over, you'll see us move very
vigorously," said one senior administration official involved in strategic
planning, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"Once you're past the
election, it changes the political ramifications" of a large-scale offensive,
the official said. "We're not on hold right now. We're just not as
aggressive."
Any delay in pacifying Iraq's most troublesome cities,
however, could alter the dynamics of a different election — the one in
January, when Iraqis are to elect members of a national assembly.
With
less than four months remaining, U.S. commanders are scrambling to enable
voting in as many Iraqi cities as possible to shore up the poll's
legitimacy.
U.S. officials point out that there have been no direct
orders to commanders to halt operations in the weeks before the November 2 U.S.
election. Top administration officials in Washington are simply reluctant to
sign off on a major offensive in Iraq at the height of the political season.
Asked for comment, White House spokesman Taylor Gross said, "The commanders
in the field will continue to make the decisions regarding military operations,
and will continue to assist the Iraqi people in the pursuit of a more peaceful
and safer Iraq."
Pentagon officials said they see a benefit to waiting
before an offensive in the so-called Sunni Triangle, the insurgent-dominated
region north and west of Baghdad. That would allow more time for political
negotiations and targeted airstrikes in Fallouja.
"We're having more
impact with our airstrikes than we had expected," said a senior Defense
official, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We see no need to rush headlong
with hundreds of tanks into Fallouja right now."
Because U.S.
commanders no longer have carte blanche to run military operations inside Iraq,
they must seek approval from interim Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi, who has
his own political future to consider — even though he owes his position to
the U.S.
U.S. officials said Allawi had backed a broad plan to retake
insurgent-controlled cities in Iraq before the January election. Allawi
approved the recent successful U.S. offensive in Samarra, which U.S.
commanders considered necessary only after a local government installed by
Allawi buckled under constant attack by insurgents.
Yet there has been
occasional friction between U.S. commanders in Baghdad and the Iraqi government
that took power after the U.S.-led coalition handed over sovereignty June
28.
In August, top U.S. officers in Iraq and Pentagon officials were
angry when Allawi ordered a halt to a day-old, U.S.-led offensive against Shiite
Muslim cleric Muqtada Sadr's militia as it holed up inside the sacred Imam Ali
Mosque in Najaf.
Allawi called the cease-fire to allow time for
negotiations with Sadr, which ultimately broke down. U.S. officials in Baghdad
and Washington argued that such frictions were just part of a gradual process of
reducing Iraq's dependence on the U.S. military.
"We made a deal, and
that's what you get when you set up an interim government," a senior military
official at the Pentagon said. "But the alternative is not recognizing
them."
U.S. officials said the recent offensive operation in Samarra
went more smoothly than they had expected, and has boosted optimism that more
cities can be wrested from insurgent hands before January's election.
"People looked at Samarra and said, 'Wow, this works.' It wasn't nearly as
difficult an operation as we had anticipated," the senior Defense official said.
"After Samarra, we now believe we can do more."
Just weeks ago, Defense
Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Army Gen. John P. Abizaid of U.S. Central
Command began lowering expectations about how comprehensive the January vote
would be, suggesting that some rebellious cities such as Fallouja might have to
be left out of the balloting.
U.S. officers in Baghdad said that the
biggest difference between the Samarra operation and the failed U.S. offensive
in Fallouja in April was that select units of the Iraqi national guard held
their ground under enemy fire. In April, the U.S.-trained Iraqi security forces
in Fallouja capitulated soon after the U.S. offensive began.
"You've
got to have a credible Iraqi security force that the local populace has
confidence in," said Army Col. Bob Pricone, chief of operations at the U.S.-led
coalition forces' headquarters in Baghdad. "Four or five months ago, the
populace didn't have a lot of confidence in the Iraqi national guard."
Still, Pentagon officials say that it may not be militarily feasible to bring
every Iraqi city in the Sunni Triangle under the control of U.S. forces and the
Iraqi government in time for the January election. The military view was
contradicted by senior State Department officials who declared in recent
congressional testimony that there were no plans to exclude any Iraqi city from
voting.
"The State Department can talk about people voting everywhere.
But securing Iraq in time for the election can't happen without the U.S.
military," the Defense official said.
During a recent trip to
Washington, Allawi expressed his interest in reclaiming insurgent-controlled
cities in the Sunni Triangle in time for the January election, even in light of
the potentially negative political impact in Iraq that a bloody military
operation could have.
Yet officials say that the man who owes his job
to President Bush — and might not have such a warm relationship with a
President John F. Kerry — does not want to press his case too hard before
the U.S. election.
"A lot of his political future depends on our
election," said the senior administration official.
Conversely, much of
the future of the U.S. in Iraq may depend on Allawi and his ability to emerge
from the shadow of the occupation and ensure that Iraq reaches its own political
milestone in January.
For 138,000 U.S. troops in Iraq trying to break
the will of a deadly insurgency, that means understanding — and sometimes
bending to — the needs of U.S. politics and the demands of their Iraqi
hosts.
Said Pricone, the operations chief: "We'll work through as many
cities as the Iraqi government wants us to."