Haaretz Correspondence
This time, the shot heard round the world was fired in California.
In an
area better known for surfing than for strategic impact, last week's test-firing
of an Arrow anti-missile off sleepy Point Magu barely made wave one in the
States, coinciding as it did with the prime-time, straw hat and Chuck Berry
hullabaloo coronation of a Democratic presidential candidate.
The
demonstration, in which the U.S.-financed, Israeli developed Arrow for the first
time successfully intercepted a Scud missile in flight, may well have made more
noise halfway around the globe, in places like Tehran and Damascus.
To be
sure, some of the claims made at home for the anti-ballistic missile system
reflected a blend of wishful thinking, chamber of commerce chest thumping, and
just plain fear - a vestige of the memory of the 1991 Gulf war, in which
American Patriot anti-missiles may have only deepened the destruction caused by
the dozens of Saddam-fired Scuds they were deployed to block.
Analysts
have uniformly dismissed as unfounded such assessments as that of an unnamed
Pentagon official, quoted by an Israeli television channel Friday as having said
that with one shot, "Israel has changed the strategic balance in the Middle
East."
Nonetheless, the test was not without significance. In a region
where smoke and mirrors are boundlessly potent elements of the decision-making
arsenal, deterrence, no less than politics itself, is perception.
In the
eyes of Israeli defense experts, the Arrow-Scud match-up proved that the Israeli
system was capable of tracking and striking a missile even smaller than the
Scud, notes Haaretz defense commentator Ze'ev Schiff.
A signal boosts
Israel's deterrent capability
From a strictly practical standpoint, that
fact alone cannot give Israelis cause for calm. Enhancements in the speed and
range of Iranian and other versions of the Scud - itself a Russian re-invention
of the Nazi V-2 rackets that thundered into Britain during the World War II
blitz - mean that further development will be needed to effectively counter
current regional threats.
At the same time, Schiff says, the test sent "a
very significant signal, saying that the United States and Israel are standing
together on an issue of great importance."
The signal is of paramount
importance from the standpoint of deterrence, Schiff continues.
"The
fact of the technology was known, in large part, by both sides. However, if the
Americans invite the Israel Air Force and take the entire system, including an
Israeli, not American radar system, this rare step signifies that the U.S. is
working with Israel on a key issue, and this strengthens Israel's deterrent
capability."
Deterrence, never far from the minds of Israeli leaders, was
a central talking point of a speech by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon delivered
just hours before the Arrow test.
Edging closer than ever to discussing
Israel's much-rumored, never-acknowledged nuclear weapons program, Sharon said,
"America recognizes Israel's right to defend itself using its own means,
anywhere, and to preserve its deterrent capability against all threats."
Sharon conceded that, "The current international atmosphere is against
countries having deterrent weapons" adding that "possibly someday, when we
achieve peace and all countries disarm, we will also be willing to consider
taking a similar step."
That day was clearly not in sight, however. "We
have been given clear support from the United States, and it has been made clear
that Israel's deterrent capability must not be harmed," he declared.
'A bullet hitting another bullet'
Although the Arrow may not
be ready for the challenges of state-of-the-art ballistic missiles, the test
represented a formidable technical achievement, one once likened by former U.S.
president and general Dwight Eisenhower as "hitting a bullet with another
bullet."
"In particular, the Arrow test was a signal in particular to
nations like Syria, which has many Scuds, and also to Iran, at a time when Iran
is developing a weapon larger than the Scud, with greater range, different
angles of flight, a different rate of speed, all of these presenting different
problems for the Arrow," Schiff says.
"But when an Iranian reads of the
test, he understands that Israel is not alone in this. When a Syrian reads of
it, he understands that America is aiding Israel to defend itself against a
missile system."
Syrians also privately worry about another element,
Schiff adds. "If Israel can intercept a Scud at this range, a Syrian missile
with a chemical warhead could explode over the heads of the Syrians
themselves."
In Schiff's view, the central importance of the Arrow
exercise remains this: "A small state and a superpower, on a sensitive subject
on which the small state is vulnerable, are sending a message to Syria and Iran,
precisely when Iran is threatening and may be embarking on new [weaponry]
developments."