Haaretz
Kislev 26, 5765
After the board of directors at the
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recently announced that the
board welcomed Iran's decision to freeze all activities connected with
uranium enrichment, a news item appeared in Tehran quoting official
sources who claimed that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan had joined forces to
develop a military nuclear program.
The Iranian sources claimed
that the two countries signed a cooperation agreement in 2003 in which
Pakistan committed to assist Saudi Arabia in developing nuclear weapons
and rockets. The news item quoted Prof. Abu Mohammad Asgarkhani of the
University of Tehran, who said that Iran's ambition to obtain nuclear
weapons stemmed from that agreement between Saudi Arabia and
Pakistan.
What prompted Iran to issue this piece of news? While the
world is preoccupied with Iranian nuclear activity, with the pressures
that European countries are putting on Iran, with the American demands to
transfer the issue to the United Nations Security Council - Iran says:
"You're only looking at us, but here are two friends of the United States
who are working together through an accord to develop a nuclear
program."
Unlike the past, this time the Iranians did not accuse
Israel - falsely - as the cause for their nuclear development, but rather
two large Muslim countries. Thus the message is that the U.S. is employing
a double standard and wants to harm Iran's efforts to develop
energy.
The nuclear connections between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan
have been publicized in the past, mainly regarding the funding that Saudi
Arabia has transferred to Pakistan to help its nuclear development. Even
though there have been suspicions, the Iranian publication heightens such
notions, to the point of stating that Saudi Arabia will obtain nuclear
weapons.
Whatever the case, if the Iranians intended to divert
international attention from their nuclear program, they failed. Although
the international agenda includes other serious problems, in all matters
concerning the proliferation of nuclear weapons, Iran heads the list,
alongside North Korea. The latest development in this area is the
agreement between Iran and the European Union announced November 14,
whereby Iran committed to a total halt to uranium enrichment.
It is
important to stress that the agreement notes that Iran has no obligation
under international agreements not to enrich uranium for civilian
purposes. The accord with the Europeans likewise notes that Iran's
agreement is voluntary. Still, had it not been for Iran's being caught
during the past 18 years trying to deceive the international community,
and the threat to transfer the issue to the Security Council, Iran would
not have volunteered to cease the enrichment activities.
The key
question is whether this agreement can be seen as the end of Iran's
military nuclear program. The answer is not necessarily unequivocal, and
more than just Israel and the U.S. think so. Leading European countries
are also uncertain whether Iran is conducting a secret military nuclear
program as well.
If anything has been achieved by the
Iranian-European accord, it is the delay it causes in the Iranian nuclear
program. Those who claim that activity against Iran does not have to
involve military measures or sanctions have gained the upper hand. They
believe there is time to employ delay strategy, because Iran has not yet
reached the critical moment.
Is it possible to estimate how long
this delay strategy can continue? The various intelligence services
disagree on this point. The Israelis believe that the accord - along with
other delaying factors - will postpone Iran's ability to produce
ingredients independently for a nuclear bomb by six months to a year. Both
Israel and the U.S. are convinced that Iran has a secret infrastructure
for nuclear development and aims to lull the world into complacency. The
Europeans admit that the accord relates only to facilities that Iran
admitted operating and not to secret facilities and that everything
depends on Iran observing the agreement.