Haaretz Tevet 12, 5767
The Institute for National Strategic
Studies at Tel Aviv University said in its annual report,
released Tuesday, that Iran will possess nuclear weapons unless military
action is taken against it, and Israel would be capable of carrying out
such an attack
"Time is working in Iran's favor, and barring
military action, Iran's
possession of nuclear weapons is only a matter
of time," the institute said in a statement distributed at a news
conference where it released its annual assessment of the Middle East's
strategic balance.
Israel considers Iran to be its most serious
threat. It dismisses Tehran's claims that its nuclear program is designed
solely to produce energy and is worried by Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad's repeated calls to wipe the Jewish state off the map.
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has not ruled out a military strike
against Iran's nuclear program, but has said he hoped other ways could be
found to keep Tehran from becoming a nuclear power. In 1981, Israel
destroyed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor in a surprise air
attack.
The INSS think tank stopped short of calling for an Israeli
military strike to curb Tehran's nuclear ambitions.
Although
experts elsewhere have questioned Israel's ability to cripple the Iranian
program, which is scattered and built in part in underground bunkers,
analysts at INSS said Israel would be capable of carrying it off.
A
member of the institute's board, Brigadier General (res.) Giora Eiland
said there would not be a military strike without a full "strategic and
military" understanding with the U.S.
"Even if, at the end of the
day, Israeli jets are going to carry out, or execute, this attack, it
might be perceived - and rightly - as an understanding between the United
States and Israel," Eiland said.
INSS head Zvi Shtauber, a retired
general who also served as Israel's ambassador in London and senior policy
adviser to former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, said Israel was "technically"
capable of striking alone and would have to do so if it takes action,
because no other country would agree to work openly with
Israel.
Taking issue with Eiland's assessment that the U.S. must
sign off on such an attack, he said, "There are certain things that it's
better the U.S. not know about."
Institute analysts, while doubtful
that international sanctions would sway Iran from its nuclear ambitions,
said the time had not yet come to decide on military action.
"We
should do it only when it's clear we've exhausted all other means,"
Shtauber said.
'Worth exploring Assad overture'
The
institute also said in its report that although it was skeptical about the
Syrian president's recent peace overtures, it was worth exploring.
The report expressed doubts that Assad could "come up with the
goods" during negotiations with Israel, in terms of both his ability and
his readiness to go through with talks.
Eiland, told reporters at
a Tel Aviv press conference Tuesday that the summer war in Lebanon will
have serious and far-reaching repercussions on Israel's power of
deterrence.
He said that both Israel's neighbors and the United
States have taken note of the failures during the war.
"From the
perspective of our friends in the U.S., we failed to come up with the
goods in an embarrassing way," he said.