Reuven Pedatzur
Haaretz
July 5, 2004
Dr. Mohammed ElBaradei will visit Israel
tomorrow, six years after his previous visit when he met with then-prime
minister Benjamin Netanyahu "to discuss the nuclear
issue."
ElBaradei is the head of the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA), and his visit here is viewed largely as ceremonial, with
Israel politely fulfilling its role as a member of the IAEA since its
inception in 1957. And just as Netanyahu had no intention of infusing real
content into his "talks" with ElBaradei in 1998, so Ariel Sharon and the
heads of the nuclear establishment now do not intend to seriously
deliberate with him Israel's nuclear policy. On the face of it,
ElBaradei's mandate is clear: he will try to set up a nuclear-free region
in the Middle East. He is, however, well aware that he has no chance of
promoting this concept. Israel's official position is that the area can be
denuclearized only after all the countries of the region sign peace
treaties with it. The IAEA chief is also well aware that so long as Iran
is secretly working toward the development of nuclear weapons, Israel does
not have any reason to examine the idea of denuclearization
seriously.
As a matter of course, ElBaradei will, during his talks,
raise the question of Israel's joining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty (NPT) even though he is aware that there is also no chance to get
Israel to change its traditional stance on this.
Since 1987, the UN
General Assembly has 13 times adopted resolutions calling on Israel to
sign the treaty; but ElBaradei is also aware of the understanding reached
in September 1969 between then Israeli premier Golda Meir and then U.S.
president Richard Nixon, which said that Washington will refrain from
pressing Israel to sign the NPT. This agreement has since been put to the
test several times, and ElBaradei is aware that here too there is no
chance for change.
ElBaradei takes a sober approach to Israel's
nuclear potential. With this in mind, he clarifies that while no one
doubts that Israel has nuclear weapons, "the decision whether to make a
public declaration or to maintain an air of ambiguity is that of Israel,"
as he phrased it last week in Moscow.
During an April conference in
Cairo, ElBaradei made a number of interesting remarks which indicate a
need to come to terms with the fact that Israel is a nuclear power de
facto. ElBaradei, who was born in Egypt, expressed strong criticism of the
"emotional and unrealistic approach" of Arab countries to the issue of
disarming Israel's nuclear arsenal. He went so far as to make it clear
that he accepted the Israeli claim, as he put it, that it "cannot forgo
weapons of mass destruction in its possession so long as there is no
comprehensive peace in the region."
Israel's nuclear policy-makers
will grant ElBaradei a great deal of respect; they will hold talks with
him that are lacking in all practical significance, and will even organize
a tour for him of the nuclear facility at Nahal Soreq. Those who make the
decisions about Israel's nuclear policy are of the opinion that there is
no need to alter the traditional, and successful, policy of
vagueness.
Undoubtedly, this Israeli nuclear policy is one of the
most impressive successes of national security, but it is possible that
the time has come to refresh it and to grant international affirmation to
Israel's nuclear status. The visit of the IAEA chief could be exploited as
a first step in this direction.
Libyan leader Muammer Gaddafi's
announcement that he plans to dismantle his country's WMD programs, and
Iran's agreement to abandon the uranium enrichment program, will naturally
lead to focusing international attention on Israel's nuclear potential,
and ElBaradei's visit here is evidence of this trend. Israel should take
advantage of the far-reaching changes that have taken place in the region
recently, and bring about a revision that will ultimately include
abandoning its policy of ambiguity. The process of change should be a
gradual one, and the sine qua non for its success has to be in full
coordination with the U.S.
Nevertheless, in view of ElBaradei's
pronouncements, it is possible that new ideas should be be examined with
him on a preliminary basis. Clearly one cannot expect him to support
changing Israel's status into that of a declared nuclear power. If,
however, at the end of his visit he will again repeat some of the
pronouncements he made in Cairo, this will be an important step in the
right direction.